If you look at the chart we’ve converted that to a money line of -175 (expected moneyline). Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 63.61% of the time. The “actual moneyline” is what a typical sportsbook would set for each spread. We took the win percentages for all NFL games since 1980 at each line and converted them into a money line. What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly NFL odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage of chances of a team winning outright.įor example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. Purdy is the second rookie quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win each of his first seven career starts (Ben Roethlisberger).For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL, it’s simple. No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it Adding Christian McCaffrey has taken San Francisco to the next level, though. The 49ers already had the versatile Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk at wide receiver, as well as George Kittle. It helps when you have weapons like Purdy has. Brock Purdy has improved the San Francisco offense, though, at least in terms of efficiency. The 49ers are on their third starting quarterback, and no one would’ve thought the seventh-round rookie was going to be the best of the bunch.

San Francisco has won 12 straight games, including wins over the Cowboys and Seahawks in the playoffs. After seven weeks, the 49ers were 3-4 and had lost their starting quarterback.

Odds of winning nfl game point spread